alphafi wound down. here's what the chain says happened.

the short version

• the shutdown started on chain at 22:01:01, 68 minutes before anyone was told. emergency mode on 7 slush & loop pools, then at 22:16:48 the ALPHA vault's 28 day lock went to 0, then at 22:47:59 borrowing was cut on all 36 alphalend markets. the tweet came at 23:09:29. the 68 minutes.
• exactly one wallet claimed ALPHA from the vault b/w the lock change & the tweet: 0x59faca57…4725, 11,566 ALPHA at 22:35:54, sold by 23:04. the other 25 receipts in that batch (23,729 ALPHA) didn't move.
• the lock change didn't unlock everyone. a ticket gets its unlock date stamped at the weekly settle & the contract enforces the stamp. 51 requests settled aug 30 to sep 20 (86,672 ALPHA) still say sep 27 to oct 18. those people unstaked by the rules & got to watch ALPHA go from ~$0.93 to ~$0.02 from inside the lock. the vault lock.
• that one early wallet is part of a cluster of at least five linked by funding & timing. four of them pulled all their alphalend collateral b/w 18:02 & 18:15, five hours before the tweet, on an otherwise boring afternoon. the cluster has done business w alphafi's treasury wallets since nov 2024: 38 BTC relayed for conversion, 50k ALPHA & 100k USDT in one evening, OTC ALPHA buys. who moved early.
• idear.sui, the other big seller, also left alphalend early (44,318 SUI at 17:29) & had been paid 25,404 USDC by alphafi wallets over the prior year. purpose unknown. i have guesses.
• the ~$17.1M of bad debt was paid on sep 20 at 22:50 by a wallet created on sep 14. so the problem was known at least 11 days before the announcement. the four positions were opened may to dec 2025 by four wallets that alphafi's fee wallet gasses, funds, or receives borrowed money from. the protocol booked their ALPHA at $2.77, $3.65 & $14.16 while it traded around $1. the bad debt.
• the fee wallet held the ownership caps of all four. september reads as a workout, not a heist: the fee wallet spent its treasury on repayments, concentrated the leftover debt on one ALPHA-only position, handed its real collateral to the rescue side, which paid about $27.6M, liquidated about $12M of security through exchange accounts, & released the users' ALPHA. the fee wallet holds about $2,300 today. september.
• none of this proves who these people are, or whether the early movers were tipped vs being the team itself. both readings are bad for alphafi. the chain shows what moved & when. it does not show intent. method & corrections has everything i got wrong along the way, cuz there was some of that.